Monday, November 06, 2006

Sunday Ruined

Looks like some of our sane lefty comrades have had there wonderful weekend ruined by some bad polls:
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous.
Had they listened to Hugh Hewitt's predictions, they would have been steeling themselves for the inevitable GOTV backlash:
There's plenty of reasons why the GOP should not be deterred by the numbers of many polls, and plenty of reasons why Dems have to fear another bit of secret sauce and echo-chamber-induced premature celebrations.
Unfortunately, neither TradeSports:

or Prediction Markets see much chance in the GOP retaining control of the House.

My guess is that the GOP will lose control of House by slim margin and maintain control of Senate.
UPDATE: Wrong on both counts.

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Manny Is Here: Sunday Ruined

Monday, November 06, 2006

Sunday Ruined

Looks like some of our sane lefty comrades have had there wonderful weekend ruined by some bad polls:
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous.
Had they listened to Hugh Hewitt's predictions, they would have been steeling themselves for the inevitable GOTV backlash:
There's plenty of reasons why the GOP should not be deterred by the numbers of many polls, and plenty of reasons why Dems have to fear another bit of secret sauce and echo-chamber-induced premature celebrations.
Unfortunately, neither TradeSports:

or Prediction Markets see much chance in the GOP retaining control of the House.

My guess is that the GOP will lose control of House by slim margin and maintain control of Senate.
UPDATE: Wrong on both counts.

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